Global tourist arrivals are down 60-80% by the end of this year, according to the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO).
UNWTO and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development consider this to be the deepest crisis facing the international tourism market, since 1950. Its impact varies across regions. Asia and the Pacific are the two regions to recover first.
International tourism is increasingly becoming one of the key global economic sectors, accounting for 7% of international trade. The industry also generates livelihoods (direct and indirect), accounting for 10% of all jobs worldwide.
UNWTO’s latest barometer shows at least one million workers have lost their jobs this year. The pandemic could lead to a 60-80% decrease in tourists compared to 2019, equivalent to a loss of 850 million – 1.1 billion international visitors. The industry is also at risk of losing US $ 910 – 1,200 billion in export revenue from tourism and 100 – 120 million jobs facing many risks. In addition, this influence also risks hindering progress toward the sustainable development goals.
Tourism is one of the industries most severely affected by travel restrictions and disease control. Long travel time constraints and the global financial crisis also threaten travel and make the industry last on the list of recovery.
Tourism forecast for 2021, experts from UNWTO said that this is a year of domestic tourism recovering faster than international. Most expect things to show signs of recovery in the fourth quarter of 2020, but it won’t be until next year that progress will be clearer. Based on experience of previous crises, UNWTO points out that leisure travel, closer visits and associated work are expected to recover faster.
Africa and the Middle East are likely to recover the biggest international tourism this year. America is the place where many experts are least optimistic. Asia and Europe are in the 50-50% index, which is only half of experts seeing a recovery in this market.